Knowing how important this process is to obtain a continued, steady and within public view due to financial concerns towards the moon to mars goals. I feel that the commission will still need to and should meet every 9 months to follow up with meetings, to verify that the goals outlined from this first assessment are being met by NASA and to file new reports as need to if necessary to redirect us to achieving this fantastic vision of people once more exploring space.

I think one of the items that the commission is going to push for is a new Space Council that will be tasked with the monitoring of the SEI objectives and liason between the various agencies, centres, organizations, bodies, institutes, associations, companies and governments that will be involved.

This will only work if they are given the same executive, presidential orders and charter as the current commission with the same administrational attachment, to report to each new president, congress and legislator. Otherwise JIMO the new group would or will feel no responsibility to the public. That is why I am more in favor of continuing the current commision. Though as member changes are needed over the long course to achieve this goal the public must be a participant in that process.

I do not want aldridge to oversee the longterm commission. He is on the board of Boeing. Needs to step down from Boeing and divest all stock of the company if he is to be partial. I'm Ok but a bit uncomfy with him being the CHair on the commission that gives guidelines.

I hopeing but not holding my breath that some of the guidlines will be to break up the Government Sheltered Monoply of space access. This Monopoly is is a cabal of NASA/Boeing/Lockheed. If one of those three isn't doing it NASA embraces it in a nice welcoming hug, but doesn't let go till all the life is sucked out of it. No real progress is made but the burning of cash in the home fires of NASA.

but how to do that without crippling NASA, and to do it so that it doesn't get scared and delay the CEV for forever and a day while they continue to opperate the Shuttle and MirLite (errr the ISS)

D'Accord.

It think NASA should only be the coordinator / administrator - and not the operator. Executive decisions should be left up to another independent body.

In an earlier post I envisioned this to be a government backed company, possible listed.

Harold - I totally agree with your underlying point. A vision is only useful if it remains a living, breathing entity. If instead the vision is managed by a big report that's released only to gather dust on a shelf, then the vision will wither and die.

I doubt the commission will be the entity that performs this role, since the commission's end date is written into its charter.

Matthew - I don't agree that NASA/Boeing/Lockheed hold a monopoly on space. As far as manned space access is concerned, they're not even in the game right now. Russia and China are providing a nice healthy dose of competition for NASA these days.

At the same time, I strongly support the commercialization of space. I think suborbital is exactly the right arena for commercial interests to take over at this point in history. Whether NASA likes it or not (I don't much care), the X Prize will open this Pandora's box very soon.

I believe that commercial interests already dominate unmanned missions to LEO. I don't believe that Wall Street is yet ready to independently finance human missions to LEO and beyond. It would be hard to promise even a *probable* short-to-medium ROI in such a venture. Wall Street will eagerly jump on board one day when fortunes can be made. Hopefully that will be someday soon, but we're not there yet.

In the US they do. ANd they will continue if they are allowed to be the ones that control the CEV. The CEV will be delayed by 5 years and cancled while we still use the shuttle. I'm 80% sure of it.

For Russia, it will be tough to convience investors to back them.

Also in the US it will be tough to convience investors to back upstart aerospace companies. There is a problem called "the brother-in-law problem" Almsot every investors has an uncler, friend, in law some relative or contact within NASA, that when they ask "Can this company succede?" the answer is "If that were possible, NASA would already be doing it"

There is only one way around it and thats to fill your company with former NASA folx like Kistler has done. Unfortunatly the k-1 isn't a humanrated vehical. Maybe someday if they get the K-1 built and working, they may make a humanrated vehical.

The long-term nature of such a venture is the reason why I suggested a government backed company (almost Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae), but which can obtain public capital.

I suspect Wall Street may be willing to invest in either bonds issued by such a company, or the company itself, as the government backing would lower the risk of the investment.

Would you be prepared to buy, say a $ 1000, 30 year, 10% interest (tax free) bond to finance such a project? (Like the "War" bonds that were issued in the 40's to finance WWII)

Matthew - If you want to split hairs, then NASA/Boeing/Lockheed have a monopoly TODAY. As soon as the X Prize is won (which I believe will be within 2 years), that monopoly goes *poof*.

Now, back to LEO and above...

I'm not a fan of the foregone conclusion that CEV is either Lockheed's or Boeing's for the taking. But if you're suggesting that CEV could be done completely in the private sector, then I completely disagree with you. You make your pitch to Wall Street (in 2026, mind you) for a privately funded human venture to the Moon/Mars. For entertainment value, I want to be a fly on the wall in that room.

Daniel - *I* would join in sending 10 of my crisp Benjamins through the paper shredder if it meant a guarantee of CEV's success. But bonds don't sell on Wall Street these days, either.

Boeing/Lockhead/NASA will still have a monoply to LEO

The X prize is for sub orbital flights, doesn't help us. And thats why NASA supports it. If the requirement was LEO? not so much. Granted once its achieved LEO will come after.. about 6-10 years if we are lucky. About the time the CEV is deamed over budget.

What needs to be done is to take manned LEO out of NASA's hands and into DOT similar to what they have for unmanned launches. and Let NASA do the missions beyond LEO with the LEO vehical made. A government Funded X-LEO prize of say 1 billion. None of this Cost Plus that only delays things, cause the contractor gets richer if it costs them more to make.

Once we can get the avergae Joe to LEO for under 100 dollars, wall street will look the viability of commercial ventures to the moon. Though personally I don't care about the moon. Its the asteroids i see as my target.

> The X prize is for sub orbital flights, doesn't help us.

Come again? Please explain how suborbital has zero value.

> A government funded X-LEO prize of say 1 billion.

I'm a huge fan of the X Prize. Great idea. But the model is no silver bullet that would bring us CEV earlier. Keep in mind that the X Prize was founded in 1995. Nine years later, we still don't have a winner for a MUCH simpler technical destination than LEO.

First the altitude that the Xprise flights have to reach is a poultry 62 miles unlike the orbital distance of the ISS which is roughly at 250 miles.
If the suborbitals were true orbital missions that were made to complete serveral rotations around. Then it becomes a threat to NASA in the long run but only if there is a flow of clients wanting such low altitude launches.
For now I will wait JIMO not to pass judgement on the commission and those that resides on the current board. Until such time that I can view there finalized report. Then to see what will become of it with regards to the SEI vision.

After having the time to read though all the stuff from the first meeting. The meeting minutes section that Tom stafford started his testimony on pg12 and ended on pg16 seemed to be the only one that had a clue. On how to achive the SEI for specific technologies to develope, items that are different now vs when we had apollo and gemini programs, and Pitfalls that could hinder the process with the current structuring of the aerospace industry. He also knew of programs that would be of benifit that were started but were stopped. That these specific programs would be on the need to do list for mars.

Sub orbital flights get nothing into space. They are only good for 5 minutes of zero-g and rapid transit. NY to Tokyop in an hour or so.

For an actual space economy to develop we need to get people into LEO, cheaply, one for Tourism, another for zero-g manufacturing. I'm looking at the later as the interium enabling economic factor of future expeditions to explore/divert/exploit the asteroids. (Which I believe we need to do by 2045)

But before, Zero-G manufacturing becomes viable, zero-g research must be done. Its prohibitivly expensive doing science on the shuttle or the station now (not count the fact of no shuttle flights) Worse case, you as a consumer don't have any idea when your experiment will fly on the station. So far since 1996 there have been 3 companies to sign up experiments they want to run on the ISS. And if someone is able to offer other companies on a smaller cheaper automatic space station, that company will conduct research faster then the one waiting for a slot on the ISS.

So having a cheap reliable way to get to LEO will slowly start the space economy. The Xprize that is just suborbital has the appearance of a viable Space Economy, but its a Sirens call. (Cept for maybe Rutan, who plans to go onto the next project after his finishes his x prize entry, which i hope is a LEO vehical)

Now a prize of 1 Billion will actually make develpment go faster then the paultry sum of 10 million. Investors would see an imeddiate return on investment, if they back the right horse. The slow pace of the Xprize development, is due in part to lack of funds.

Ofcourse the most limiting factor of a space encomy is a lovely catch-22. There is no market cause its expensive to get things into LEO orbit. And getting things into LEO is so expensive cause there is no market.

So the LEO prize (which goal should bew to reduce price per pound to leo down to 100 or so and to do it every 3 days) will at least pay for most if not all of the development of the winner. So that at least its cheap enough for a market to develop.

If the goal of the Pres's Vision is to develop the infrastructure to be able to goto any point in the solar system. This is the best foundation for that infrastructure.